Definition: Wahrscheinlichkeit

Sei Ω MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaaeaaaaaaaaa8 qacqqHPoWvcqGHGjsUcqGHfiIXaaa@3AE5@ ein endlicher Grundraum. Sei P:( Ω ) + 0 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaaeaaaaaaaaa8 qacaWGqbGaaiOoaiabgIridpaabmaabaGaeuyQdCfacaGLOaGaayzk aaGaeyOKH4QaeSyhHe6aa0baaSqaaiabgUcaRaqaaiaaicdaaaaaaa@416F@ eine Funktion mit den folgenden Eigenschaften:

  1. P( A )0 für alle AΩ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaaeaaaaaaaaa8 qacaWGqbWaaeWaaeaacaWGbbaacaGLOaGaayzkaaGaeyyzImRaaGim aiaabccacaqGMbGaaei=aiaabkhacaqGGaGaaeyyaiaabYgacaqGSb GaaeyzaiaabccacaWGbbGaeyOHI0SaeuyQdCfaaa@4900@ , (nicht-negativ)
  2. P( Ω )=1 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaaeaaaaaaaaa8 qacaWGqbWaaeWaaeaacqqHPoWvaiaawIcacaGLPaaacqGH9aqpcaaI Xaaaaa@3BC4@ , (normiert)
  3. P( AB )=P( A )+P( B ) für alle A,B mit AB= MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaaeaaaaaaaaa8 qacaWGqbWaaeWaaeaacaWGbbGaeyOkIGSaamOqaaGaayjkaiaawMca aiabg2da9iaadcfadaqadaqaaiaadgeaaiaawIcacaGLPaaacqGHRa WkcaWGqbWaaeWaaeaacaWGcbaacaGLOaGaayzkaaGaaeiiaiaabAga caqG8dGaaeOCaiaabccacaqGHbGaaeiBaiaabYgacaqGLbGaaeiiai aadgeacaGGSaGaamOqaiaabccacaqGTbGaaeyAaiaabshacaqGGaGa amyqaiabgMIihlaadkeacqGH9aqpcqGHfiIXaaa@58C3@ . (additiv)

P MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaaeaaaaaaaaa8 qacaWGqbaaaa@36EC@ heißt Wahrscheinlichkeitsmaß bzw. Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung auf Ω MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqaMPbvLHfij5gC1rhimfMBNvxyNvgaC9uBLDwyam XvP5wqSXMqHnxAJn0BKvguHDwzZbqefqvATv2CG4uz3bIuV1wyUbqe dmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2DaebbnrfifHhDYfgasaacH8srps 0lbbf9q8WrFfeuY=Hhbbf9v8qqaqFr0xc9pk0xbba9q8WqFfea0=yr 0RYxir=Jbba9q8aq0=yq=He9q8qqQ8frFve9Fve9Ff0dmeaabaqaci GacaGaaeqabaWaaeaaeaaakeaaqaaaaaaaaaWdbiabfM6axbaa@40EF@ (genauer auf ( Ω ) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaaeaaaaaaaaa8 qacqGHyeYWdaqadaqaaiabfM6axbGaayjkaiaawMcaaaaa@3AB6@ .

Für AΩ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaaeaaaaaaaaa8 qacaWGbbGaeyOHI0SaeuyQdCfaaa@3A6C@ heißt P( A ) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaaeaaaaaaaaa8 qacaWGqbWaaeWaaeaacaWGbbaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaaaa@393B@ Wahrscheinlichkeit des Ereignisses A MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaaeaaaaaaaaa8 qacaWGbbaaaa@36DD@ .

Die obigen Eigenschaften 1.-3. nennt man auch Kolmogorov-Axiome der Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie.

Definition: Wahrscheinlichkeitsdichte, Wahrscheinlichkeitsraum

Wir definieren die Dichte  p MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaaeaaaaaaaaa8 qacaWGWbaaaa@370C@ als die Funktion, die jedem ωΩ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaaeaaaaaaaaa8 qacqaHjpWDcqGHiiIZcqqHPoWvaaa@3AF6@   die Wahrscheinlichkeit  p( ω )=P( { ω } ) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaaeaaaaaaaaa8 qacaWGWbWaaeWaaeaacqaHjpWDaiaawIcacaGLPaaacqGH9aqpcaWG qbWaaeWaaeaadaGadaqaaiabeM8a3bGaay5Eaiaaw2haaaGaayjkai aawMcaaaaa@41C4@ des Ereignisses { ω } MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaiWaaeaaqa aaaaaaaaWdbiabeM8a3bWdaiaawUhacaGL9baaaaa@3A24@, sprich des Elementarereignisses ω MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqaMPbvLHfij5gC1rhimfMBNvxyNvgaC9wBLDwyam XvP5wqSXMqHnxAJn0BKvguHDwzZbqefqvATv2CG4uz3bIuV1wyUbqe dmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2DaebbnrfifHhDYfgasaacH8srps 0lbbf9q8WrFfeuY=Hhbbf9v8qqaqFr0xc9pk0xbba9q8WqFfea0=yr 0RYxir=Jbba9q8aq0=yq=He9q8qqQ8frFve9Fve9Ff0dmeaabaqaci GacaGaaeqabaWaaeaaeaaakeaaqaaaaaaaaaWdbiabeM8a3baa@414E@ zuordnet.

Somit ist p:Ω + 0 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaaeaaaaaaaaa8 qacaWGWbGaaiOoaiabfM6axjabgkziUkabl2riHoaaDaaaleaacqGH RaWkaeaacaaIWaaaaaaa@3E7E@ .

Das Tripel ( Ω,( Ω ),P ) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaeWaaeaaqa aaaaaaaaWdbiabfM6axjaacYcacqGHyeYWdaqadaqaaiabfM6axbGa ayjkaiaawMcaaiaacYcacaWGqbaapaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaaa@4011@ heißt (endlicher) Wahrscheinlichkeitsraum, manchmal schreiben wir verkürzt ( Ω,P ) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaeWaaeaaqa aaaaaaaaWdbiabfM6axjaacYcacaWGqbaapaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaaa @3AC2@ .